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The underlying reason for Bitcoin (BTC) hitting $28,000 by November 1, 2020, is based on historical data and not just an analyst’s prediction.
Bitcoin’s volatility is a well-known aspect of the asset and the fact that this aspect is high is what’s preventing it from becoming an everyday unit of exchange/account or in simple terms – money.
Arguing the soundness of Bitcoin is for another day, however, what’s important is this historical data that suggests an average BTC return of 196% after a certain condition has been met.
According to Kraken’s August volatility report, there are “suppressed pockets” which represent bitcoin volatility slump between 15% to 30%.
To date, bitcoin has only every hit these pockets 12 times, and every time bitcoin slides into these pockets, it reverses to the mean, which happens to be a 315-day moving average.
In other words, after sliding into these pockets, volatility has seen an average surge of 140%.
What’s interesting is the price implication of this volatility suppression and eventual expansion.
It was observed that the price saw an average surge of 196% over the next 90 days.
On two separate occasions – 2014 and 2018, the returns were -60% and -45%., hence, there is an 83% chance of price surging 196%.
Considering the last dip in the pocket was July 24, 2020, and the surge as of writing was only 4.36%, there is a lot of upside for Bitcoin.
196% surge from July 24, over the next 90 days should put bitcoin between the $28,000 and $30,000 range and on October 22, 2020.
This would mean the Bitcoin price has to surge a 4.2% surge every day to hit the target of ~$30,000.
In other trending Bitcoin News today:
PlanB: $700,000,000 Investment in Bitcoin Industry Shows New Phase of BTC’s Financial Takeover Underway
Recent Bitcoin developments have convinced popular analyst PlanB that Bitcoin is entering a new phase of adoption.
The anonymous trader and creator of the stock-to-flow Bitcoin model points to a Reuters report that Kazakhstan has been in talks to attract more than $700 million worth of investments into the cryptocurrency sector.
The oil-reliant central Asian country offers BTC miners cheap electricity rates and reportedly accounts for more than 6% of the total Bitcoin hashrate across the globe, according to a report published in the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance.
PlanB also points to last month’s news that MicroStrategy, the largest publicly-traded business intelligence company, had used $250 million of its balance sheet capital to buy Bitcoin.
“This is a game changer: Nasdaq-listed company with $250M Bitcoin (25% of assets, 15% of market cap) is basically a Bitcoin ETF! Shareholders have 15% BTC exposure and 85% tech. No capital charges (like banks & pension funds), no SEC approval needed (like ETF).”
PlanB recently told cryptocurrency podcaster Peter McCormack that he actually made a conservative bet when he predicted that BTC will hit $288,000.
Instead, he says it could meteorically rise to $864,000 in four years.
“I’m on $288,000 as an average value. $100,000 would be very nice, too. But if you just follow the math, if you just follow the data, and I don’t mean the time-series model. So we’re not looking at Bitcoin only. We’re looking at gold, silver, diamonds, real estate, all that stuff.
It’s $288,000. That’s an average value. It could overshoot, like three times, like it did the last phases. I don’t want to mention the number. I try to be conservative all the time. But let’s say a 2x or a 3x from that $288,000, and then it crashes again, of course.”
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DISCLAIMER: This is NOT financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this video are just opinions, nothing more. Trading is very risky, especially when trading with leverage. Seek financial advice from a professional and trade at your own risk because I am not responsible for any investment decisions that you choose to make.