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The latest update of the Bitcoin S2FX price model shows July is beginning exactly as required for a long-term bullish trajectory to continue.
BTC may be struggling to hit $10,000, but its progress is right on track, new stock-to-flow data confirms.
Adding a new update to his model on July 1, stock-to-flow model creator PlanB showed that Bitcoin (BTC) is behaving exactly as its bullish history demands.
The BTC S2F Cross Asset Model, or S2FX, uses color-coded dots to analyze Bitcoin price action relative to the date of its next block reward halving.
Dots immediately after halving, like at present, are in red and historically precede a jump in Bitcoin’s price, which PlanB often refers to as being higher by “an order of magnitude.” Reflected in the model, the next order of magnitude shift is imminent — it should start before the end of 2020. Between then and the next halving in 2024, the model focuses on a price of $288,000 for BTC/USD, with the potential for much higher peaks.
“Bitcoin S2F chart update .. RED DOT #2,” PlanB summarized on Twitter, referring to June and July’s markings on the chart. Stock-to-flow remains a steadfast bullish take on long-term Bitcoin price action, despite fielding considerable criticism this year.
PlanB maintains that those critics have yet to produce a viable alternative to his model, which has traditionally tracked price behavior extremely accurately.
Analyzing monthly returns during the last halving period from 2016 to 2020, PlanB highlighted the “very asymmetrical” nature of Bitcoin price performance.
As such, for BTC/USD to leave its current stagnant levels at around $9,000 and hit $12,000, all that is needed is a “typical” month of solid 30% gains.
In other trending Bitcoin News today:
Bitcoin 90-Day Active Supply Soars to Pre-2017 Bull Run Level: Report
A new report analyzing on-chain activity says that BTC is now due for a bullish phase based on supply movements. Published by asset manager Stack Funds on July 2, the findings suggest that 90-day active supply is dictating bullish potential for BTC/USD.
Publishing an accompanying chart for the metric, Stack argued that it has important implications for historical price behavior.
“The data provides an indication of two folds. Firstly, the 90d % of Bitcoin active supply has tapered over the past 3 years, from 36% to 17%, suggesting that investors’ time horizon has lengthened as Bitcoin are held over longer periods in their wallets,” the report states.
“Secondly, prior to the 2017 and 2019 bull run, where Bitcoin hit $20,000 and $14,000 highs against the dollar, there was evidence of steep surges in the 90d % active supply (depicted in the green zones).”
The trend has appeared since Bitcoin’s price crash in March, an event which proved to be something of a watershed moment for traders.
Stack concluded:
“As statistics have shown, a potential run-up in Bitcoin prices can be expected, which has yet to materialize, leading us to believe that the preceding rise in Bitcoin prices could happen sooner rather than later.”
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DISCLAIMER: This is NOT financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this video are just opinions, nothing more. Trading is very risky, especially when trading with leverage. Seek financial advice from a professional and trade at your own risk because I am not responsible for any investment decisions that you choose to make.
Show Notes / Resources:
https://mcusercontent.com/45836f27729699cf7a484a367/files/7b462da8-b89b-40f0-a562-e10b41b35f53/Stack_Research_2_Jul_2020.pdf
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-90-day-active-supply-soars-to-pre-2017-bull-run-level-report
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-set-for-288k-bull-run-in-2020-popular-btc-price-model-says
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