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With Coinbase’s highly anticipated direct listing IPO expected to take place next month, options traders appear to be betting that the Bitcoin price will once again soar to new all-time highs in the coming weeks.
On March 24, the founders of crypto analytics firm Glassnode tweeted data suggesting that options traders on peer-to-peer crypto derivatives exchange, Deribit, are loading up on contracts set to expire on April 30 with a BTC strike price of $80,000.
Contracts worth a notional value of 4,000 Bitcoin have been purchased targeting the price-point in total, more than any other strike-price by at least 50%.
Should the price be less than $80,000 at the end of April, the contracts will expire worthless, indicating high conviction that the Bitcoin markets are still a long way from topping out among derivatives traders.
However, according to crypto derivatives data aggregator Skew, probability estimates based on market data for the April 30 contract suggests there is just a 6.19% chance of BTC prices being above $80,000 when the positions mature.
Significant volume has also converged around the contracts with a strike price of $120,000, meaning some traders believe the Bitcoin price will more than double over the next five weeks. Skew estimates it is only 2.15% likely Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the April 30 expiry date.
However, with many options traders building positions across multiple contracts bearing divergent strike prices, some of the traders betting on $80,000 or $120,000 may not expect prices to get that high.
Skew’s data shows that contracts for April 30 are currently the third-most-popular among options traders, with open interest currently equating to a notional value of 38,700 BTC.
June 21 contracts rank second with 42,300 BTC worth of notional open interest, while 117,900 BTC worth of contracts or $6 billion in notional value is set to expire on March 26.
In other trending Bitcoin News today:
Here’s When Bitcoin’s Bull Run May Expire, According to One of China’s Biggest Crypto Miners
The CEO of one of China’s largest Bitcoin mining companies says his firm is using a variety of models to try and pinpoint when Bitcoin’s current bull market cycle will end, and how high the top cryptocurrency will rise.
Jiang Zhuoer asserts that Bitcoin has not nearly reached levels of attention it garnered during the 2017 bull run.
According to Google Trends, Bitcoin hit its peak search rate in January of this cycle and was still roughly 40% off its 2017 google trend top.
The BTC.TOP CEO tells Wu Blockchain that according to both of his BTC bull cycle predictions, the king coin is far from its top.
Zhuoer’s representative tells CoinDesk that the chief executive believes Bitcoin will hit $150,00-$300,000 during this bull market.
Other Chinese blockchain companies have predicted that the cycle may top out this fall, unless a large number of institutions follow Meitu, Tesla and MicroStrategy’s lead and publicly adopt the flagship currency.
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DISCLAIMER: This is NOT financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this video are just opinions, nothing more. Trading is very risky, especially when trading with leverage. Seek financial advice from a professional and trade at your own risk because I am not responsible for any investment decisions that you choose to make.
Show Notes / Resources:
Jiang Zhuoer, one of China’s big miners, told WuBlockchain that according to the latest multiple model studies, the fastest will be September 2021 and the slowest June 2022 will turn from a bull to a bear market. pic.twitter.com/g72wgYnYnu
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) March 21, 2021
#Bitcoin is attacking fiat money on two fronts: – It’s perfect-money attributes are draining investment out of fiat
– It’s insatiable appetite for energy is starving fiat out of existence pic.twitter.com/SnyiV2ltz5
— Max Keiser (@maxkeiser) March 25, 2021
https://cointelegraph.com/news/options-traders-target-80k-by-may-skew-suggests-just-6-chance-they-re-right
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-no-longer-a-fringe-asset-due-to-us-dollar-debasement-says-soros-fund-exec
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