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The First Bitcoin Price Prediction Ever Made

According to Blockstream founder and cypherpunk, Adam Back, Hal Finney’s $10 million BTC price prediction isn’t so far fetched, though, the reasons behind these levels may not be as apparent as you may think.

When it comes to any Bitcoin prediction, crypto analysts often tout the most hyperbolic and over-inflated projections imaginable.

From the more modest end of the spectrum at around $10,000, toward the virtually inconceivable heights of $10 million, valuations within this space can vary wildly.

Regardless, some augers of these seemingly aggrandized Bitcoin (BTC) price points do sometimes offer a reasonable explanation to support them.

Currently circulating its way around the ecosystem are some of the earliest price predictions ever made, and per Back, they may well come to fruition.

Merely a week after the mining of bitcoin’s genesis block, Hal Finney opined that BTC could grasp a value of $10 million per coin. 

This hypothesis was based – as many BTC predictions are these days – on bitcoin becoming a de facto global payments system.

Finney wrote:

“As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of all the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world.”

Cypherpunk Hal Finney made this infamous Bitcoin thought experiment 11 years ago so we updated it for this decade.

A revised BTC prediction: The world’s economy has grown in the 11 years since the post was made.

According to “The Global wealth report 2019” by Credit Suisse, the total worldwide household wealth today equals approximately $360 trillion.

Divide it by 20 million bitcoins, and we get an even bigger number – roughly $18 million for a single coin.

This would be an increase of 225,000% in the price of Bitcoin – a value appreciation not unheard of in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

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DISCLAIMER: This is NOT financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this video are just opinions, nothing more. Trading is very risky, especially when trading with leverage. Seek financial advice from a professional and trade at your own risk because I am not responsible for any investment decisions that you choose to make.

Show Notes / Resources:

Totally agree. Must admit that I probably would not have this level of confidence (and interest) in bitcoin, if I would not have had 20+ years experience investing $100B AUM and personally seeing the unintended consequences of quantitative easing (QE) and negative interest rates.

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) January 11, 2020

Running bitcoin

— halfin (@halfin) January 11, 2009

https://decrypt.co/16494/hal-finneys-idea-now-sees-18-million-bitcoin-price-prediction

https://www.ccn.com/adam-back-10-million-bitcoin-prediction-is-closer-than-it-sounds/

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Bold Profits Daily guru, Ian Dyer, doesn’t think the Bitcoin price will just hit $100,000, he thinks is will soar past it!

Ian believes the BTC price can go to $115,000 by next August. That means Bitcoin could soar 995% in less than a year.

Talk about a fast, HUGE return!

The bullish Bitcoin prediction is right in alignment with the infamous Stock-to-Flow model which suggest a $100,000 BTC price by August, 2021.

“We’re telling you how you can benefit from the rise of Bitcoin as it disrupts the global financial system. Our prediction stands: The Dow and Bitcoin will hit 100K in America 2.0.”

THE 995% RETURN YOU DON’T WANT TO MISS!

“You know we’re extremely bullish, optimistic and positive on Bitcoin. The reasons it could surge in just a short time stem from Paul’s GoingUpness strategy.”

“Since March, the number of Bitcoin stored on a crypto exchange is decreasing, which adds to Bitcoin’s ScarceAbility: At the same time, the Bitcoin price has risen more than 150% from its March low. Plus, demand for BTC has continued to increase.”

“Last month the first publicly-traded company announced that it used $400 million of its cash to purchase about 38,000 bitcoins. This is incredibly bullish. Corporations are starting to see its value which is another sign of demand.”

In other trending Bitcoin News today:

Grayscale Investments Scooped Up Over 17,000 BTC in the Last Seven Days

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is a very popular investment vehicle and in 2020 the trust has obtained a massive amount of BTC.

Today, GBTC has $4.7 billion assets under management (AUM), according to data provided by bybt.com.

Grayscale’s bitcoin position is also displayed on the company website as well for transparency purposes.

Since the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust inception date on September 25, 2013, there are 471,022,700 shares outstanding and each share is worth 0.00095519 BTC per share.

This week, digital currency proponents noticed that Grayscale scooped up around 17,100 BTC or $182 million using today’s exchange rates.

Bybt.com’s data shows the trust obtained the bitcoin stash during the last seven days and GBTC’s aggregate bitcoin position is now 449,900 BTC.

Bitcoin (BTC) markets have done well in recent days and dominance is nearing 60% again.

The cryptocurrency’s percentage change versus USD during the last year is up 29% and during the last 90-days, BTC has gained over 16%.

With 449,900 BTC held, Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust has 2.14% of the entire 21 million BTC supply.

As far as coins in circulation, BTC just passed the milestone of 18,500,000 in circulation.

This means GBTC’s purse represents 2.43% out of the BTC currently in circulation.

No one knows exactly how Grayscale acquired the 17,100 BTC, but Microstrategy’s CEO Michael Saylor explained the efforts his company took to purchase the 16k BTC Microstrategy recently purchased.

“To acquire 16,796 BTC, we traded continuously 74 hours, executing 88,617 trades ~0.19 BTC each [three] seconds,” Saylor said. “~$39,414 in BTC per minute, but at all times we were ready to purchase $30-50 million in a few seconds if we got lucky with a 1-2% downward spike,”

Saylor added. A number of BTC proponents also believe that companies like Microstrategy and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust snatching up vast amounts of BTC is bullish for investors.

CEO of UK bitcoin exchange Coincorner, Danny Scott, tweeted on Sunday that BTC’s “foundations are getting stronger by the day.” “62 days of Bitcoin ending above $10,000,” Scott tweeted. “Previous was 61 from 1st Dec 2017.”

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DISCLAIMER: This is NOT financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this video are just opinions, nothing more. Trading is very risky, especially when trading with leverage. Seek financial advice from a professional and trade at your own risk because I am not responsible for any investment decisions that you choose to make.

Show Notes / Resources:

Bitcoin: No. 1 In Race to 100K?

https://news.bitcoin.com/grayscale-investments-scooped-up-over-17000-btc-in-the-last-seven-days/

https://cointelegraph.com/news/only-25-million-bitcoin-left-to-mine

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Bitcoin is on track to be one of the year’s best performing assets, despite a recent retraction – but that’s not stopped BTC bulls from fighting on Twitter.

The Bitcoin price has climbed through much of 2020, adding some 40%, with the bullish stock-to-flow model – that predicts a massive $288,000 BTC price before 2024 – working “like clockwork,” according to its anonymous creator.

However, a number of high-profile bitcoin analysts and entrepreneurs have clashed over the stock-to-flow model this last week, with the anonymous PlanB accusing his critics of trying to unmask him and his model derided as “absolutely useless.”

“The [stock-to-flow] model is based on the most fundamental errors which render it absolutely useless,” warned Alex Kruger, an economist and cryptocurrency analyst, speaking over the phone.

The stock-to-flow pricing model, created by anonymous Twitter user PlanB, who claims to be a Dutch institutional investor with a legal and quantitative finance background that manages around $100 billion in assets and tweets from the handle @100trillionUSD, calculates a ratio based on the existing supply of an asset against how much is entering circulation.

Kruger, along with many other analysts in recent months, has warned the model is based on faulty comparisons and a “spurious relationship” between price and scarcity.

“The whole model rests on the wrong assumption that there is cointegration between price and scarcity,” Kruger said, who explained that without cointegration it’s “nonsensical to think that bitcoin stock-to-flow, a number that goes up programmatically, and everybody knows what it will be at any point in time, can be used to predict price.”

Criticism of the stock-to-flow model and its creator have bubbled up recently, with the chief executive of bitcoin buying app Swan Bitcoin, Cory Klippsten, posting what PlanB considered to be identifying information on Twitter before deleting it and saying he was “wrong to post any personal information” about PlanB and adding anonymous bitcoin users “should have the right” to stay anonymous.

“It’s extremely important to be bullish for the right reasons,” Klippsten said via Twitter, explaining his opposition to the popularization of the stock-to-flow model.

“Otherwise you’ll have weak hands when your belief is proven false.” Klippsten, speaking via Telegram, said he supported the stock-to-flow pricing model until just a few months ago when he “looked into the models and realized they’re invalid” and “have zero predictive power.”

According to PlanB, who has disputed the information posted by Klippsten, the stock-to-flow pricing model shows bitcoin will reach $288,000 before the next bitcoin halving in 2024.

PlanB has also argued that assets that have a high stock-to-flow have a high value, pointing to gold, silver, diamonds and real estate in a chart posted to Twitter.

In other trending Bitcoin News today:

Bitcoin Active Addresses Shatters 1,000,000! Bitcoin’s fundamentals continue to show signs of strength.

According to the on-chain data provider Coin Metrics, the number of BTC active addresses has soared to a level not seen in over two years.

“Bitcoin doesn’t have to be complicated. The supply is capped and the number of users has been growing exponentially this whole time.”

Analysts use the active addresses metric to measure the rate of a crypto asset’s adoption.

The metric refers to the number of unique addresses that are active on the network as a sender or receiver of the crypto token.

On September 25th, the number of BTC active addresses skyrocketed to 1.14 million – the highest level since the 2017 bull market.

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DISCLAIMER: This is NOT financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this video are just opinions, nothing more. Trading is very risky, especially when trading with leverage. Seek financial advice from a professional and trade at your own risk because I am not responsible for any investment decisions that you choose to make.

Show Notes / Resources:

blocked: noise control

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) September 28, 2020

OK, by Dec 2021 we will know then: S2F>$100k, Dave