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As the Bitcoin price plummets below $8,000, Adaptive Capital digital asset strategist Willy Woo is recanting his earlier BTC bull run forecast.
Last month, the crypto analyst and influencer tweeted a chart that he said revealed how strong on-chain fundamentals backed Bitcoin’s breakout above $10,000.
The BTC price has since crashed after hitting its recent highs. Although Woo says he believes the Bitcoin (BTC) long-term prospects are solid, the indicator now suggests a more worrisome situation in the near term.
“This is a chart of on-chain ‘investor activity’ right now. Long term looks solid. Short term is very weird, normally it’s smooth oscillations, not anymore, it’s like something hit it (COVID19?), it’s fizzing out. Waiting for this to reverse before we put in a bottom. Maybe soon.”
Woo says Bitcoin’s fallout is due to a black swan event – a name for an extremely rare and unforeseen circumstance that causes catastrophic damage to the economy.
Because they are unpredictable, black swan events are not accounted for in financial forecasts.
“I was totally wrong on this call… “no chance this is a top” just below 10k. The market right now, crypto and traditional, is undergoing a black swan.”
The black swan metaphor is now extensively used to describe the coronavirus, which has infected over 118,000 worldwide since it was first reported in December of 2019.
Fallout from the virus has triggered a global market downturn that has not spared Bitcoin and the crypto market at large.
Bitcoin Futures and Options Volume May Suggest BTC is About to Make a Massive Movement
In the near-term, two factors that could suggest an intense movement is coming is the fact that Bitcoin’s CME Futures volume and options volume is spiking.
Over the past 24-hours, Bitcoin’s CME Futures trading volume skyrocketed to over $400m, a level not seen since late-February when the cryptocurrency’s bullish market structure first started degrading.
Although CME Futures volume could spike in the time preceding a movement in either direction, the ongoing downtrend may suggest traders are anticipating further downside.
This notion is further bolstered by the fact that BTC options trading volume just set a fresh all-time at roughly $200m, showing that an explosive movement is imminent in the days and weeks ahead.
“All time high for bitcoin options volumes yesterday with nearly $200mln trading,” analytics platform Skew noted in a recent tweet.
The days and weeks ahead should elucidate the validity of the perception that a big movement is brewing.
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DISCLAIMER: This is NOT financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this video are just opinions, nothing more. Trading is very risky, especially when trading with leverage. Seek financial advice from a professional and trade at your own risk because I am not responsible for any investment decisions that you choose to make.