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Compared to the Bitcoin price analysis of the previous two weeks, this weekend has been relatively relaxed for Cryptocurrency traders.
On Saturday the BTC price came within $10 of $10,000 before pulling back to $9,794.
Despite the inability to hold above $9,900, the shorter timeframe also shows Bitcoin (BTC) price painting higher lows since the drop on Feb. 19 to $9,352 and the price is also holding well above the 20-MA of the Bollinger Bands indicator.
A high volume surge could easily push the price to the upper Bollinger band arm at $10,126 but Bitcoin would still have some challenges ahead.
If Bitcoin can hold the $9,850 support and push above $9,883, we could see the price rise to $10,200 as it is currently sandwiched between VPVR nodes at $10,210 and $9,892.
In an earlier analysis, Cointelegraph contributor Keith Waring explained that $10,000 is a less important level to attain when considering that a significant resistance at $10,300 awaits.
Waring also notes that even though Bitcoin’s current setup strengthens the probability of the price retaking the $10K mark, the CME close at $9,740 on Feb. 21 means traders believing in the CME gap narrative will hold their powder with the expectation of the price revisiting the gap.
Meanwhile, crypto analyst Micheal Van De Poppe has taken a more bullish point of view, tweeting the above chart and saying:
“Retest done. As long as this level remains support, I’m expecting continuation towards $11,000 / $11,600.”
WHY BITCOIN MAY NOT SKYROCKET IMMEDIATELY AFTER HALVING
To form a Bitcoin price prediction analysts generally look at previous market patterns and events.
The two BTC halvings that have already occurred may offer some indication as to what will happen after the next one, and there might not be the big pump that is expected.
With less than 78 days to go to the halving, the debate is raging on as to whether prices are already factored in or not.
Opinion is pretty evenly divided between those that believe prices are not factored in and there will be a pump, and those that think the opposite will occur.
Binance boss Changpeng Zhao appears to be leaning towards the latter group with a recent post depicting charts that show flat markets following previous halvings.
“History may not predict the future, and correlation does not prove causation… Watch what happens AFTER halving. Markets are inefficient, at least, historically.”
Markets did indeed remain flat for several months following the first halving in 2012.
Only in 2013 did they start to run with an epic gain of around 8000% from $13 to over $900.
A bear market followed in 2014 then momentum started to build the following year in the lead up to the 2016 halving.
Following that one there was very little activity until 2017 when momentum started building again and bitcoin surged from around $1,000 to over $20,000.
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DISCLAIMER: This is NOT financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this video are just opinions, nothing more. Trading is very risky, especially when trading with leverage. Seek financial advice from a professional and trade at your own risk because I am not responsible for any investment decisions that you choose to make.
Show Notes / Resources:
History may not predict the future, and correlation does not prove causation.
Here are just 2 charts around the previous #bitcoin halving. Watch what happens AFTER halving. Markets are inefficient, at least, historically.
Just data, draw your own conclusions. pic.twitter.com/AwChmAGvrK
— CZ Binance 🔶🔶🔶 (@cz_binance) February 23, 2020
https://bitcoinist.com/why-bitcoin-may-not-skyrocket-immediately-after-halving/
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-rebounds-but-cme-gap-103k-remain-big-obstacles