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The creator of the stock-to-flow (S2F) Bitcoin (BTC) price model says that the upcoming block reward Bitcoin halving will decide if it lives or dies.
In a series of tweets on April 16, PlanB said that he is sticking by the Bitcoin price increasing by “an order of magnitude” in the two years after the May halving.
“IMO bitcoin 2020 halving will be like 2012 & 2016. As per S2F model I expect 10x price (order of magnitude, not precise) 1-2 yrs after the halving. Halving will be make-or-break for S2F model. I hope this halving will teach us more about underlying fundamentals & network effects”
Stock-to-flow measures the issuance of new Bitcoins each block against Bitcoin’s existing supply, a method which has proven highly accurate in charting price performance.
According to the model’s latest incarnation, BTC/USD should hit $30,000 by the end of 2020.
Continuing, PlanB responded to queries regarding Bitcoin’s correlation to traditional markets.
A key concern among many traders is that a repeat of March could still occur, BTC/USD shedding 60% in a day as stocks crashed.
Highlighting the Dow Jones, PlanB argued that current correlation was the result of the broader coronavirus crisis, and was not a permanent feature for Bitcoin:
“During crisis everything is correlated. What’s next is what’s interesting. They will not be correlated forever (in my opinion).”
Promising to throw out the stock-to-flow model altogether if it fails to deliver as planned, he added that he nonetheless was not nervous about such a scenario occurring.
Recently, some well-known cryptocurrency figures have criticized the concept, arguing it is simply too optimistic and has created a “cult” which reinforces its prognosis.
As Cointelegraph reported, they include Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and a Bitcoin whale known as J0E007.
“To be clear: I expect S2F-price relationship to hold,” PlanB confirmed.
Here’s Why Bitcoin Rallying 15% to $8,000 Is Just a Matter of Time
Ever since the $3,700 bottom, Bitcoin has mounted an impressive comeback, rallying as high as $7,500 last week as global markets have also seen a similar recovery to pre-crash levels.
But the rally might not be done yet. Crypto trader LightCrypto, or just Light, recently remarked that it “feels like $8,000 is at hand,” referencing his sentiment that the cryptocurrency could soon rally just under 15% from current levels to $8,000.
As to why this is the case, he remarked that with the potential of new buyers “absorbing profit-taking [by longs] and miner selling,” there’s a good chance $7,000 will be “accepted,” which could result in another strong leg to the upside.
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DISCLAIMER: This is NOT financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this video are just opinions, nothing more. Trading is very risky, especially when trading with leverage. Seek financial advice from a professional and trade at your own risk because I am not responsible for any investment decisions that you choose to make.
Show Notes / Resources:
IMO #bitcoin 2020 halving will be like 2012 & 2016. As per S2F model I expect 10x price (order of magnitude, not precise) 1-2 yrs after the halving. Halving will be make-or-break for S2F model. I hope this halving will teach us more about underlying fundamentals & network effects pic.twitter.com/kiTdN0n3Lu
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) April 16, 2020
Acceptance of this price level comes from new buyers absorbing profit-taking and miner selling. After 1 month of consolidation, it seems that tension will be resolved shortly, with enough kindling built up for a strong leg.
Feels like $8,000 is at hand. pic.twitter.com/xHCAIgtVU1
— light (@LightCrypto) April 16, 2020
Here’s Why Bitcoin Rallying 15% to $8,000 Is Just a Matter of Time
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving-will-be-make-or-break-for-stock-to-flow-model-planb