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Bitcoin continued its bounce from its 2021 opening price on Wednesday, hitting $31,600 in what some fear is just a temporary reprieve from the downside.Â
BTC Bulls had successfully defended the largest cryptocurrency against further losses at just above $29,000 â the price at which the market began the year, however, concern is running high over current strength being a ârelief rallyâ â not a true comeback after a price floor.
âItâs still âshort the bounceâ season,â popular analyst and podcast host Nebraskan Gooner summarized to Twitter followers and veteran trader Peter Brandt concurred, suggesting that Bitcoin would need another shock leg down before the genuine return to form kicked in.
In other trending Bitcoin News today: Is Stock-To-Flow Crypto Analysis Still Valid? Coin Bureau Looks at State of Prominent Model
The S2F has traditionally been applied to commodities like gold and silver. It predicts the performance of an asset based on the idea that the price increases as the asset becomes more scarce. PlanB has used it to predict Bitcoin topping out at about $288,000 this bull run.
In a new video, the pseudonymous host of Coin Bureau says that with Bitcoin trading near the $30,000 level â about $83,000 below where the S2F suggests it should be â he agrees with PlanB that the model is in a âmake or breakâ phase.
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DISCLAIMER: This is NOT financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this video are just opinions, nothing more. Trading is very risky, especially when trading with leverage. Seek financial advice from a professional and trade at your own risk because I am not responsible for any investment decisions that you choose to make.
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BITCOIN PRICE PUMPS 20%, ARE BULLS RUNNING INTO A TRAP?
With the BTC price registering gains of over 20% in the last 24 hours, many holders are getting excited.
But, it seems that the jury is still out on just how positive this latest pump is.
Could the bulls be running into a trap?
Bitcoin analysts canât agree on whether this latest pump will keep seeing BTC price soar.
Some seasoned traders are celebrating Bitcoinâs decoupling from the stock market while others are calling for caution.
Indeed, throughout its 11-year trajectory, bitcoin price has widely been regarded as uncorrelated with the stock market.
Weâre all well-versed in the safe haven narrative and comparing bitcoin to gold.
As stock markets plunge, Bitcoin has often held its own or even swung to the upside.
However, just days ago, that narrative appeared to have been called sharply into check.
The cryptocurrency market experienced a major sell-off alongside the S&P 500.
While there is a generally positive vibe in the air (at last), some traders are calling for caution.
After all, weâve been burned before. This could be another liquidity grab before the next major downswing.
That said, many seem to be in agreement that the key support level bitcoin price needed to flip was $6400.
Both Josh Rager and CryptoBirb cited the $6,400 level as crucial.
CryptoBirb even went as far as to predict that bitcoin price could bounce all the way back to $7,600 as there is âlittle resistance between 6.4k and 7.6k.â
Rager also points out though, that even breaking $6.4k, stocks selling off is not bullish for BTC. Coinbase also warns that if the S&P 500 correlation sustains again in the future, âBitcoin will enter uncharted territory.â
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DISCLAIMER: This is NOT financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this video are just opinions, nothing more. Trading is very risky, especially when trading with leverage. Seek financial advice from a professional and trade at your own risk because I am not responsible for any investment decisions that you choose to make.
Show Notes / Resources:
I can not express how bullish I am on bitcoin. We are at risk of losing the entire system right now. I know they will find a way to save it but all trust is lost.
Gold guys/girls â youâll be fine too. Itâs just that $BTC has bigger upside, by far but is riskier than gold
â Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) March 19, 2020
$btc tapping ex-range lows flipped to resistance. Positive for bulls is that there is little resistance between 6.4k and 7.6k
Intraday consolidation breakout retest towards 5.4-5.6k would be the most healthy to confirm price action is slowly recovering after Friday 13th PTSD lol pic.twitter.com/6u1fUZjpU6â Cryptoâżirb (@crypto_birb) March 20, 2020
$BTC rejected off the point of control (highest traded volume price) â a level that we saw act as support twice before the breakdownFor me to start to feel bullish, price needs to flip at least $6400 on high time frames
Even then, stocks selling off is not bullish for BTC pic.twitter.com/CjrlzqZtRe
â Josh Rager đ (@Josh_Rager) March 20, 2020
https://cointelegraph.com/news/raoul-pal-super-bullish-on-bitcoin-price-after-miraculous-80-rebound
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STOCK-TO-FLOW CREATOR HAS âNO DOUBTâ BITCOIN WILL HIT 0K-8K âBEFOREâ DECEMBER 2021!!
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PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, reiterated on Nov. 8 that the Bitcoin price is well on its way to hit $100,000.
The pseudonymous analyst expects the dominant cryptocurrency to achieve the $100,000 to $288,000 range by December 2021.
Bitcoin would have to increase by around 545% from the current price to surpass $100,000.
At that price point, the market capitalization of BTC would near $2 trillion, or roughly the same as Apple, the worldâs most valuable company.Â
The S2F model attempts to predict the long-term price trend of Bitcoin by evaluating its supply.
Namely, it takes into consideration its fixed supply and the block reward halving, which reduces the rate at which new BTC is produced or âmined.â
The theory behind S2F is that as the supply of Bitcoin decreases over time and inflation would continuously rise.
These two factors could theoretically amplify the uptrend of the top cryptocurrency.
Based on Bitcoinâs supply curve and the halving cycles, S2F puts the expected valuation of BTC at $5.5 trillion.
The model predicts Bitcoin to reach a multi-trillion-dollar valuation before 2024.
The model reads:
âS2FX model estimates a market value of the next BTC phase/cluster (BTC S2F will be 56 in 2020â2024) of $5.5T. This translates into a BTC price (given 19M BTC in 2020â2024) of $288K.â
In a tweet, PlanB said he remains confident the S2F modelâs $100,000 price projection for Bitcoin would materialize.
2021 is particularly important for Bitcoin because it follows a highly anticipated block reward halving in May 2020.
Six months ago, Bitcoin experienced its third halving in history.
This decreased the number of BTC mined each day by half, which would cause the circulating supply to drop over time.
The analyst wrote:
âPeople ask if I still believe in my model. To be clear: I have no doubt whatsoever that bitcoin S2FX is correct and bitcoin will tap $100K-288K before Dec2021. In fact I have new data that confirms the supply shortage is real. IMO 2021 will be spectacular. Not financial advice!â
So far, following the halving, Bitcoin has increased from $8,700 to $15,500, recording a 78.1% rally in six months.
On-chain analysts like Woobull.com creator Willy Woo say that the total supply of Bitcoin is lower than often thought.
While the total supply of Bitcoin is 21 million, there is a high number of BTC that is lost or dormant that can no longer be accessed.
Woo said:
âTotal supply of Bitcoin will not be 21m, itâll be around 17m as many coins died in the fight for being acknowledged as something valuable in the early days. This means 0.002 BTC per person on the planet.â
As such, PlanB expects Bitcoin to follow the S2F model as the available supply and the amount of new Bitcoin mined decreases over time.Â
In other trending Bitcoin News today:
âWHY THIS ANALYST THINKS BITCOIN HITS $17,000 IN THE NEXT WEEKâ
Analysts are optimistic that Bitcoin could resume its ascent, potentially towards $17,000 or even $18,000 as the trends of this market remain positive:
âI think thereâs a decent chance bitcoin breaches $17k and even into $18k in the next 10 days (next weekly candle). We are due for a decent mid timeframe blowoff and chill for a bit and wicking into the ATH cluster just feels so rightâŠ
The path to $18k or ATH wick seems the path of least resistance. Nobody wants to sell until then and everybody is buying dips. Easiest way to create market balance is to do it quickly then let the market chop around a bit.â
The aforementioned trader isnât the only one calling for Bitcoin to hit $17,000 in the near future.
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DISCLAIMER: This is NOT financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this video are just opinions, nothing more. Trading is very risky, especially when trading with leverage. Seek financial advice from a professional and trade at your own risk because I am not responsible for any investment decisions that you choose to make.
Show Notes / Resources:
People ask if I still believe in my model. To be clear: I have no doubt whatsoever that #bitcoin S2FX is correct and #bitcoin will tap $100K-288K before Dec2021. In fact I have new data that confirms the supply shortage is real. IMO 2021 will be spectacular. Not financial advice! pic.twitter.com/GNSxLIt7NG
â PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 8, 2020
Why This Analyst Thinks Bitcoin Hits $17,000 in the Next Week
https://cointelegraph.com/news/s2f-creator-has-no-doubt-bitcoin-will-hit-100k-by-december-2021
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Bitcoin: 3 Reasons Market Strategist Is âIncreasingly Bullishâ | Institutional Demand For BTC Soars
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Strategist Lyn Alden said she switched from âuninterested to quite bullish on Bitcoinâ in 2020.
Following the drop of BTC to sub-$3,600 in March, she remains optimistic on the top cryptocurrency.
Alden, who found Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, wrote:
âSo, Iâm neither a perma-bull on Bitcoin at any price, or someone that dismisses it outright. As an investor in many asset classes, these are the three main reasons I switched from uninterested to quite bullish on Bitcoin early this year, and remain so today.â
The three reasons Alden laid out are scarcity, halving, and the potential of Bitcoin to act as a backdrop to inflation.
Reason# 1: Scarcity of Bitcoin
Unlike traditional financial assets, even gold, the supply of Bitcoin is fixed.
No more than 21 million BTC can ever exist, which makes Bitcoin a deflationary currency.
Scarcity could give Bitcoin value, Alden explains in her paper.
There are no central entities that could alter the monetary policy of BTC.
If the demand for Bitcoin continues to increase and its supply remains the same, it could push the value upwards.
She explained:
âBitcoinâs protocol limits it to 21 million coins in total, which gives it scarcity, and therefore potentially gives it value⊠if there is demand for it.â
Reason #2: The May 11 halving
On May 11, the Bitcoin blockchain network underwent its third block reward halving.
Approximately every four years, a halving gets activated, slowing down the production of BTC by half.Â
The purpose of a halving is to decrease the rate of BTC production gradually as Bitcoin approaches its maximum supply of 21 million.
A halving cuts block rewards miners receive by half, leading to a massive decline of miner revenues for a brief period.
Following every halving, Bitcoin historically saw extended price rallies.
The previous halvings occurred in 2012 and 2016.
At the time, BTC was hovering at $11 and $650 in 2012 and 2016 respectively.
Now, BTC remains above $9,000, after reaching a record high at $20,000 in December 2017.
Alden wrote:
âBitcoin has historically performed extremely well during the 12-18 months after launch and after the first two halvings. The reduction in new supply or flow of coins, in the face of constant or growing demand for coins, unsurprisingly tends to push the price up.â
Reason #3: Backdrop of heightened levels of inflation
In May 2020, billionaire hedge fund investor Paul Tudor Jones praised Bitcoin and described it as âgreat speculation.â
Tudor Jones said he holds just over 1% of his net worth in Bitcoin.
He explained that the potential devaluation of cash strengthens the value proposition of BTC.
He said:
âEvery day that goes by that bitcoin survives, the trust in it will go up.â
Similarly, Alden said that other hedge funds have been investing or experimenting with Bitcoin as of late.
âSmaller hedge funds have already been dabbling in Bitcoin, and Tudor Jones may be the largest investor to date to get into it. There are now firms that have services directed at getting institutional investors on board with Bitcoin, whether they be hedge funds, pensions, family offices, or RIA Firms.â
In other trending Bitcoin News today:
Institutional Demand For Bitcoin Soars As Grayscale Reveals Record-Breaking Near $1 Billion Quarter
New York-based Grayscale, which allows accredited investors to buy bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies through its funds, recorded inflows of $905.8 million for its second quarterânearly double the previous quarterly high of $503.7 million in the first three months of this year.
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DISCLAIMER: This is NOT financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this video are just opinions, nothing more. Trading is very risky, especially when trading with leverage. Seek financial advice from a professional and trade at your own risk because I am not responsible for any investment decisions that you choose to make.
Show Notes / Resources:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-3-reasons-market-strategist-lyn-alden-is-increasingly-bullish
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